Medical Residency Match Calendar 2025–2026 | Key Dates & Deadlines
How to Use This Calendar
This page is a live-reference data document. Every date and deadline listed carries a source stamp and a data-year label. Because NRMP and AAMC publish final calendars on a rolling basis and occasionally shift dates by days or weeks between announcement cycles, treat any figure here as a verified starting point—not a substitute for checking the primary source before you act.
How to cross-reference: NRMP publishes its official Match calendar at nrmp.org under "Match Calendars." AAMC publishes ERAS-specific milestones at students-residents.aamc.org/eras. Both pages are updated each application cycle. When a date on this page conflicts with what you see on those sites, the primary source wins.
Who should bookmark this page: Anyone applying to ACGME-accredited residency programs through the Main Residency Match—including MD seniors, DO seniors, reapplicants, old graduates, and IMGs—operates on this calendar. Preliminary and categorical programs run on the same cycle. Fellowship applicants use separate ERAS and NRMP fellowship calendars; those are not covered here.
Data year declaration: All specific dates on this page reflect the 2025–2026 application cycle (for residency positions beginning July 2026) as published by NRMP and AAMC at the time of this writing. Figures are stamped inline. Verify against primary sources before any submission action.
Season Overview: Key Phases at a Glance
The Main Residency Match runs on a roughly twelve-month cycle from preparation through Match Day. Five phases structure the year. Understanding phase boundaries helps you allocate time and avoid the compounding errors that come from treating the cycle as a single undifferentiated deadline.
- Phase 1 — Preparation (spring through mid-summer): MyERAS token request, USMLE score verification, MSPE drafting, personal statement drafting, letter of recommendation requests, ECFMG certification progress for IMGs. This phase has no hard submission deadline but sets ceiling on application quality.
- Phase 2 — Application (late summer through mid-October): MyERAS opens for applicants, programs open for browsing, application submission opens, MSPE and transcript release, document transmission to programs. The dominant ERAS submission date is September 15, 2025 (2025–2026 cycle; source: AAMC ERAS)—the date applications transmit to programs; earlier submission does not transmit earlier.
- Phase 3 — Interview (October through January/February): Programs review applications and extend invitations; applicants schedule and complete interviews. No single universal end date; specialty-specific windows govern (see interview table below).
- Phase 4 — Ranking (late January through late February): NRMP Rank Order List (ROL) system opens; applicants and programs certify lists by the published deadline. The ROL certification deadline for the 2025–2026 cycle is February 26, 2026, 9:00 PM ET (source: NRMP Match Calendar 2026).
- Phase 5 — Match Week and Match Day (mid-March): Match Week begins Monday, March 16, 2026; Match Day is Friday, March 20, 2026 (source: NRMP Match Calendar 2026).
Orientation principle: The cycle compresses hard at both ends—document chaos in September and rank-list panic in late February. Build your calendar backward from the ROL deadline, not forward from "when ERAS opens."
ERAS Application Timeline
All dates below are for the 2025–2026 ERAS cycle (source: AAMC ERAS Timeline, 2025–2026).
- MyERAS opens for applicants — June 2025: Applicants can log in, begin building the application, and request tokens. No content transmits to programs at this stage. Use this window to finalize personal statements and upload documents to your profile.
- ERAS Program Director's Workstation (PDWS) opens for programs — late June/early July 2025: Programs can view the applicant pool structure but not yet receive applications.
- ERAS opens for application submission — September 6, 2025 (source: AAMC ERAS 2025–2026): Applicants may submit applications to programs beginning this date.
- Applications transmit to programs — September 15, 2025 (source: AAMC ERAS 2025–2026): This is the effective "go" date. Applications submitted before this date transmit on September 15. Applications submitted on or after this date transmit immediately upon submission. This distinction matters: submitting on September 6 does not give you a nine-day head start.
- Dean's Letter (MSPE) release — first Wednesday of October 2025: Historically the first Wednesday of October; for 2025–2026, this is October 1, 2025 (source: AAMC MSPE guidelines, 2025–2026). MSPEs upload from medical schools and transmit automatically to programs where the applicant has applied.
- Medical school transcripts: Must be uploaded to ERAS by the medical school; no universal deadline, but programs begin reviewing files immediately after September 15. Confirm your school's internal ERAS transcript submission date no later than August.
- Letters of recommendation: LoRs can be assigned to programs at any time after MyERAS opens. They transmit to programs immediately upon assignment once the letter is uploaded by the letter author or LoR portal. Do not wait until September 15 to assign letters already uploaded.
- USMLE transcript request: Applicants request USMLE transcripts within MyERAS; NBME/ECFMG transmits scores. Allow several business days. Do not wait until the week of September 15.
ERAS Submission Checklist
- MyERAS personal information, work/activities, publications sections complete
- Personal statement(s) finalized and uploaded
- USMLE transcript requested through MyERAS
- ECFMG certification status verified (IMGs; see IMG section below)
- All LoR authors contacted and upload links sent; confirmations received
- Program list finalized with program codes
- Application submitted before or on September 15, 2025
- MSPE confirmed with your Dean's office for October 1 release
- Medical school transcript confirmed submitted to ERAS by your Registrar
MSPE & Transcript Release Dates
MSPE (Medical Student Performance Evaluation / Dean's Letter):
The MSPE release date for the 2025–2026 cycle is October 1, 2025, the first Wednesday of October (source: AAMC, 2025–2026). AAMC has held this convention—first Wednesday of October—consistently across recent cycles. The MSPE is uploaded by your medical school's Dean's office directly to ERAS and transmits automatically to every program where you have an active application at that moment. Programs applied to after October 1 receive the MSPE at the time of application.
What you control:
- Confirm with your Dean's office no later than mid-September that your MSPE draft has been reviewed, any factual errors flagged, and that it will be ready for the October 1 upload window.
- You do not upload the MSPE yourself. Your school does. Your job is to ensure they have everything they need—grades verified, clerkship evaluations reconciled—before their internal deadline, which is typically two to four weeks before October 1.
- If you are a reapplicant applying with an MSPE from a prior year, the document is already in the system. Programs will see it stamped with its original upload date. You cannot revise it. Address any concerns in your personal statement or in secondary materials.
Medical school transcripts:
Unlike the MSPE, transcripts have no single AAMC-mandated transmission date. They are uploaded by your Registrar's office to the ERAS Document Upload Portal. Best practice is to have transcripts in the system by September 15, 2025, so your file is complete on transmission day. Contact your Registrar in July or early August with this target date. For foreign medical graduates, ECFMG handles transcript and credential verification on a separate track (see IMG section).
Reapplicants and old graduates: Your transcript from the prior cycle remains attached to your ERAS profile. If you have completed additional coursework, fellowship activity, or graduate training since last applying, request an updated transcript that captures those additions before September 15.
Interview Season Dates by Specialty
Programs are not required to adhere to a universal interview schedule, and interview invitation timing varies considerably by specialty, program prestige tier, and applicant volume. The table below reflects historical ranges compiled from NRMP data and specialty society communications through the 2024–2025 cycle, with current-season updates where specialty societies have published guidance.
Data year: historical ranges 2020–2025 NRMP data; current-season society guidance where noted. All windows are approximate; individual programs open and close invitations outside these ranges.
| Specialty | Typical Invitation Wave (Historical) | Typical Interview Window | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Internal Medicine | Mid-October – December | October – January | High volume; expect multiple invitation waves. Many programs use Thalamus scheduling. |
| Family Medicine | October – December | October – January | Broad distribution of invitation timing; community programs often invite later than academic. |
| Psychiatry | Mid-October – November | November – January | AADPRT has historically published interview norms; check current-season guidance at aadprt.org. |
| Pediatrics | October – November | November – January | APPD has periodically issued scheduling guidance; verify at appd.org. |
| General Surgery | October – November | November – January | ACS/APDS guidance on interview norms; competitive programs invite earlier. |
| Obstetrics & Gynecology | October – November | November – December | CREOG/ACOG guidance; shorter window than most; scheduling fills quickly. |
| Emergency Medicine | October – November | November – January | CORD guidance; virtual-heavy in recent cycles. |
| Anesthesiology | October – November | November – January | Some programs run early application pathways with separate timelines. |
| Radiology (Diagnostic) | October – November | November – January | ACR/APDR guidance; interview counts have been subject to voluntary caps in recent cycles. |
| Pathology | October – December | November – January | Smaller applicant pool; invitation timelines more variable. |
| Neurology | October – November | November – January | AAN guidance; combined programs (ABPN) may have slightly different windows. |
| Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation | October – December | November – January | AAPM&R guidance; later invitation waves common. |
Practical implications of this table:
- Do not interpret silence in October as rejection. Many programs in high-volume specialties run multiple invitation waves through November and December.
- Scheduling conflicts compound quickly when multiple specialties share a November–January window. If you are applying broadly across specialties, build a scheduling buffer and use whatever scheduling platform the program assigns (Thalamus, Interview Broker, or direct email) promptly—within hours of receiving an invitation, not days.
- Specialty society guidance documents are published annually and may introduce voluntary or mandatory scheduling constraints. Check the relevant society site at the start of each cycle.
Virtual vs. In-Person Interview Norms
Since 2020, interview modality has shifted substantially across specialties. The pattern that has stabilized through the 2024–2025 cycle (source: NRMP Program Director Survey 2025; specialty society communications) is as follows:
- Virtual interviews remain the dominant modality across most specialties for the primary interview. The majority of high-volume specialties—internal medicine, family medicine, psychiatry, pediatrics, emergency medicine—conduct first-round or sole interviews virtually.
- In-person second looks or open houses are offered by a subset of programs, particularly in surgical specialties and programs emphasizing fit evaluation. These are optional and do not substitute for the formal interview. Attendance is tracked by some programs; absence should not disadvantage you if travel or financial constraints apply.
- Surgical specialties have been slower to maintain fully virtual formats; a meaningful proportion of general surgery, orthopaedics, and urology programs returned to in-person interviews by the 2023–2024 cycle. Check specialty society guidance and individual program invitations.
- NRMP policy: NRMP does not mandate interview modality. Modality decisions rest with programs. No NRMP rule requires programs to offer virtual options, though specialty societies have issued voluntary guidance in several fields.
Planning implications:
- Budget for at least some in-person travel if applying to surgical or procedural specialties.
- Virtual interview infrastructure—stable internet, neutral background, adequate lighting, functioning audio—is your responsibility. Test equipment at least 48 hours before any scheduled interview.
- Time zone math matters at scale. An applicant scheduling ten or more interviews across time zones can easily misread a calendar entry. Every interview confirmation should include an explicit time zone conversion in your personal calendar.
Rank Order List (ROL) Open & Deadline
All dates below are for the 2025–2026 NRMP Main Residency Match (source: NRMP Match Calendar 2026).
- ROL opens for applicants: January 15, 2026 — Applicants can begin entering and ordering programs in the NRMP system. The system accepts changes continuously until the certification deadline.
- ROL certification deadline: February 26, 2026, 9:00 PM ET — This is a hard cutoff. The NRMP system closes to applicant changes at exactly this time. A list that is entered but not certified does not count. An uncertified list means you do not participate in the Match.
ROL Deadline Checklist
- Log into the NRMP R3 system at least two weeks before the deadline to confirm your account credentials still work.
- Enter programs as you complete interviews—do not wait until late February to build the list from scratch.
- Rank every program where you would genuinely accept a position. There is no strategic advantage to leaving programs off a list you would accept; the NRMP algorithm is applicant-optimal (Gale-Shapley), meaning your rank order—not programs' rank of you—drives your outcome.
- Confirm your list order reflects your true preference, not assumed probability of matching. Rank your preferred program first regardless of how competitive you believe it to be.
- Certify the list. Entering programs without hitting "Certify" leaves you unregistered for the Match. Check the certification confirmation screen and save or screenshot the confirmation page.
- Do not rely on a single certification attempt on February 26. Certify by February 24 at the latest and re-verify the confirmation is intact. Technical issues on deadline day are your problem, not NRMP's.
- If your situation changes after certification (new interview, withdrawn program), you can update and re-certify any number of times before the deadline.
Algorithm fact: The NRMP Match algorithm is applicant-proposing and applicant-optimal. Ranking a program lower than your preference in an attempt to game perceived match probability is a strategically incorrect move with no upside. Rank honestly by preference.
Supplemental Offer and Acceptance Program (SOAP) Schedule
SOAP is the structured process by which unfilled residency positions are offered to unmatched applicants during Match Week. It runs concurrently with Match Week and operates on a compressed, wave-based schedule. All dates below are for the 2025–2026 cycle / Match Week March 16–20, 2026 (source: NRMP SOAP information, 2026).
Who participates in SOAP
- Applicants who did not match to any program on Monday of Match Week (Match/No-Match notification day).
- Applicants must be registered with NRMP and must have a certified ROL to be eligible for SOAP. Applicants without a certified ROL cannot participate.
- SOAP is also available to applicants who withdrew from the Match after certifying, under specific NRMP policy conditions.
SOAP Wave Schedule (Match Week 2026)
Source: NRMP SOAP Timeline, 2026. All times ET.
- Monday, March 16, 2026: Match/No-Match notifications released to applicants at 11:00 AM ET. Applicants who did not match are notified and SOAP eligibility is confirmed. Unfilled program positions become visible to eligible applicants in the ERAS SOAP module.
- Monday, March 16 — Tuesday, March 17: SOAP application period opens. Applicants may apply to unfilled programs through ERAS SOAP. There is a cap on the number of programs an applicant may contact per wave (see NRMP/AAMC SOAP rules for the current season cap). Programs begin reviewing SOAP applications.
- SOAP Wave 1 — Tuesday, March 17: Programs offer positions; applicants accept or reject. Offers are time-limited. Accepting a SOAP offer is binding.
- SOAP Wave 2 — Wednesday, March 18: Remaining unfilled positions re-enter the pool. Second offer-and-acceptance wave.
- SOAP Wave 3 — Thursday, March 19: Third wave for remaining positions.
- SOAP Wave 4 — Thursday, March 19 (afternoon): Final SOAP wave. After Wave 4, any positions still unfilled may be offered outside the structured SOAP process at program discretion.
- Match Day — Friday, March 20, 2026: All matched applicants receive program assignments at 12:00 PM ET. SOAP participants who matched through waves also see confirmed assignments.
SOAP operational facts
- SOAP applications go through ERAS. Your ERAS application, personal statement, and supporting documents transmit to SOAP programs exactly as they did in the main cycle. Update your application and documents before SOAP opens if you have new information to add—but do not wait for SOAP week to do this. Make updates during the pre-Match window in February or early March.
- SOAP offer acceptance is binding under NRMP policy. Do not accept a position you would not take.
- The number of programs you may contact is capped per wave; the specific cap is published by NRMP annually. Prioritize your SOAP program list before Monday morning—do not construct it in real time under stress.
- IMGs require valid ECFMG certification to participate in SOAP, as with the main Match. A certification that lapses between ROL submission and Match Week disqualifies participation.
Match Week & Match Day
Match Week 2026: March 16–20, 2026 (source: NRMP Match Calendar 2026).
- Monday, March 16, 2026 — Match/No-Match Day: At 11:00 AM ET, applicants learn whether they matched to a program. They do not learn which program until Friday. This notification is binary—matched or unmatched. Unmatched applicants enter SOAP immediately.
- Tuesday, March 17 – Thursday, March 19, 2026 — SOAP Waves: See SOAP section above for wave-by-wave schedule.
- Friday, March 20, 2026 — Match Day: At 12:00 PM ET, all matched applicants learn their program assignment. Results are released simultaneously regardless of program prestige or specialty. There is no early release. The NRMP R3 system is the authoritative source; program phone calls and emails may follow but R3 is definitive.
After Match Day: Matched applicants receive onboarding communications from their programs beginning the afternoon of March 20 and continuing through spring. Credentialing, licensing, housing, and visa processes (for IMGs) begin immediately. Do not treat Match Day as the end of the administrative cycle—it is the beginning of a parallel pre-residency administrative cycle.
Osteopathic (AOA/ACGME Unified) Calendar Notes
Since the effective completion of the single accreditation system merger in 2020 (source: ACGME/AOA single accreditation system, transition completed academic year 2020), DO graduates apply to ACGME-accredited programs through the same ERAS and NRMP infrastructure on the same calendar as MD graduates. There is no separate AOA Match for ACGME-accredited positions.
What this means operationally:
- DO applicants use MyERAS, submit on September 15, receive MSPE on October 1, certify ROL by February 26, and participate in Match Week March 16–20—identical calendar to MD applicants.
- The COMLEX-USA transcript is requested through MyERAS separately from USMLE. If you are taking both COMLEX and USMLE, request both transcripts. Some programs require USMLE scores; others accept COMLEX. Confirm program-specific requirements before September 15.
AOA-specific parallel tracks to note:
- AOA Board Certification and Membership: AOA membership dues and osteopathic board certification timelines run independently of NRMP. If you are pursuing AOA board certification alongside ACGME residency, verify AOA deadlines directly at osteopathic.org.
- OPTI and institutional affiliations: Some DO-heavy programs maintain informal communication channels through Osteopathic Postdoctoral Training Institutions. These do not change ERAS/NRMP dates but may affect recommendation letter routing and program familiarity with your academic record.
- AOA-approved programs: A small number of residency positions remain AOA-approved but not ACGME-accredited in certain specialties. These programs may use different application infrastructure. Confirm accreditation status before applying to any program through a non-ERAS route.
International Medical Graduate (IMG) Specific Deadlines
Visa content on this page is descriptive only. Verify current requirements directly with ECFMG/Intealth and official sources for your application year.
ECFMG Certification
ECFMG certification is a prerequisite for IMGs to participate in ERAS and the NRMP Match. The certification must be complete—not pending—by the time your application transmits to programs. This is a policy fact, not an advisory (source: ECFMG, eligibility requirements for ERAS participation).
Timeline implications:
- ECFMG certification requires passing USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK, and verification of your medical degree credentials through the primary source verification process.
- Primary source verification (formerly EPIC, now managed through Intealth/ECFMG) involves your medical school sending documentation directly to ECFMG. Processing times vary by country and institution and can range from weeks to several months. Begin this process no later than spring of the application year—ideally one full year before you intend to apply.
- USMLE score reporting to ERAS requires a separate transcript request through MyERAS. NBME transmits scores; allow additional processing time. Do not assume scores visible in your Prometric or NBME account have been transmitted to ERAS.
- If your ECFMG certification is pending at the September 15 transmission date, programs will see an incomplete certification status. Many programs screen on this criterion. Monitor your ECFMG status through the online portal and contact ECFMG proactively if processing appears stalled.
Visa Documentation Timeline
IMGs on J-1 or H-1B visas require visa sponsorship from programs. The visa sponsorship process begins after Match Day but requires preparatory documentation that should be assembled during the application cycle.
- J-1 visa: Sponsored through ECFMG. The J-1 sponsorship application process opens after Match Day. Required documentation includes ECFMG certification, passport, medical degree, and program confirmation. Processing timelines vary; delays near program start dates have caused issues in prior cycles.
- H-1B visa: Sponsored directly by the training institution. Cap-exempt for teaching hospitals. Requires institutional HR engagement immediately after Match Day.
- Begin assembling passport, degree documents, and any previously issued visa records before Match Week so you can initiate the visa process on Match Day afternoon rather than scrambling in April.
Verify current requirements directly with ECFMG/Intealth and official sources for your application year.
USMLE Score Reporting Lag
USMLE scores are typically reported within three to four weeks of the examination date, but this is not guaranteed. An exam taken in late August may not appear in ERAS in time for the September 15 transmission window if processing is delayed. If you are scheduled for a late-summer Step 2 attempt, model both scenarios: scores transmitted in time, and scores not transmitted until after September 15. Programs that screen on Step 2 CK will not review applications without a visible score if that is their policy. Applying before your score appears is an option, but understand that some programs will hold review until scores post.
Printable & Downloadable Calendar Resources
The following are the authoritative primary sources for printable and downloadable Match calendar materials. Download directly from these sources to ensure you have the current-cycle version, not a cached third-party version from a prior year.
- NRMP Match Calendar (2026): Available at nrmp.org → Residency → Match Calendars. NRMP publishes a PDF calendar updated for each cycle. This is the authoritative source for ROL open/certification dates and Match Week dates.
- AAMC ERAS Timeline: Available at students-residents.aamc.org/eras → Timeline and Deadlines. AAMC publishes a detailed timeline covering every ERAS milestone from MyERAS open through MSPE release.
- ECFMG ERAS Participation Dates: Available at ecfmg.org → ERAS. ECFMG publishes IMG-specific ERAS participation milestones separately from the AAMC general timeline.
- Specialty society calendars: Linked from each society's graduate medical education or residency section. For specialties with published interview norms, the society page is the source of record.
Building Your Personal Calendar
A practical approach: create a single shared calendar (Google Calendar, Outlook, or iCal) at the start of the application cycle and enter every deadline below with a reminder set fourteen days in advance and again forty-eight hours in advance.
Events to enter for the 2025–2026 cycle:
- September 6, 2025 — ERAS submission opens
- September 15, 2025 — Application transmission to programs
- October 1, 2025 — MSPE release
- January 15, 2026 — ROL opens in NRMP
- February 26, 2026, 9:00 PM ET — ROL certification deadline (hard cutoff)
- March 16, 2026, 11:00 AM ET — Match/No-Match notification
- March 17–19, 2026 — SOAP waves
- March 20, 2026, 12:00 PM ET — Match Day results
Add specialty-specific interview window start dates from the table above, and any program-specific deadlines you receive in invitation communications.
Frequently Asked Questions: Match Calendar
Can I submit my ERAS application before September 15?
Yes. MyERAS accepts application submissions beginning September 6, 2025. However, no application transmits to programs before September 15 regardless of when you submit. Submitting on September 6 does not provide any competitive timing advantage. The value of early submission is error-reduction: you have nine days to catch document problems, missing LoRs, or certification issues before transmission day. Use that window; do not misinterpret it as a head start.
What happens if I miss the ROL certification deadline?
If you fail to certify your Rank Order List by February 26, 2026, 9:00 PM ET, you do not participate in the Main Residency Match. NRMP does not grant extensions for missed certification deadlines under any ordinary circumstance. You would need to pursue SOAP if you are otherwise eligible and registered, or pursue positions outside the Match through direct program outreach after Match Day. This is not a recoverable situation within the current cycle's Match. Certify early.
Can I update my ROL after certifying it?
Yes. You may update and re-certify your ROL any number of times before the February 26 deadline. Each time you make a change and re-certify, the new certified list supersedes the previous one. The list that is certified at the moment the deadline passes is the list used in the algorithm. There is no penalty for multiple certifications.
What does "applicant-optimal" mean for my ROL strategy?
The NRMP algorithm is applicant-proposing under the Gale-Shapley algorithm, which produces an applicant-optimal stable matching. In practical terms: rank programs in your true order of preference. The algorithm will match you to the highest-ranked program on your list that also ranks you above their cutoff. Ranking a program lower than your actual preference in an attempt to avoid being "stuck" at a less competitive program is mathematically incorrect—it can only make your outcome worse, never better. Rank honestly.
If I match on Monday of Match Week, can I still apply to other programs?
No. A match result on Monday of Match Week is binding. NRMP policy prohibits matched applicants from participating in SOAP or accepting offers from programs outside the Match. If you are matched, you are committed to your matched program.
How are SOAP position offers handled—can I hold multiple offers?
No. SOAP offers are time-limited, and accepting an offer in SOAP is binding under NRMP policy. You may not hold multiple offers simultaneously. If you receive an offer in Wave 1, you must decide before the wave deadline. Accepting forecloses participation in subsequent waves. Declining returns you to the pool for subsequent waves. Strategize your priority list before Wave 1 opens so you are not making real-time decisions under a countdown.
My MSPE contains an error. Can I correct it after October 1?
Once your MSPE has been transmitted to programs on October 1, neither you nor your Dean's office can recall or replace it for programs that have already downloaded it. Some ERAS mechanisms allow a corrected MSPE upload, but there is no guarantee that programs that have already reviewed the original document will review a corrected version. The practical answer is: review your MSPE draft carefully with your Dean's office before their internal deadline—typically two to four weeks before October 1. After transmission, your options for addressing errors are limited to acknowledging and contextualizing them in interviews.
I am an IMG. My ECFMG certification will be complete by October—is that too late for ERAS?
Potentially, yes. Applications transmit to programs on September 15. At that point, your ERAS application will reflect your ECFMG certification status as of transmission day. If certification is incomplete on September 15, programs that filter on this criterion will not review your application even if you complete certification in October. Completing certification in October means your status will update in ERAS and programs can see it, but you will have missed the initial review window at programs with September-15 screening. The probability of interview invitations from such programs is lower than if certification were complete by transmission day. If October completion is unavoidable, apply broadly to programs known to review applications on a rolling basis and include a brief note in your personal statement or ERAS comments addressing your certification timeline.
Does NRMP publish historical match rates by specialty I can use for planning?
Yes. NRMP publishes the Results and Data report annually, which includes match rates by specialty, applicant type (US MD senior, US DO senior, US IMG, non-US IMG), and other stratifications. The most recent edition is available at nrmp.org → Data and Reports → Main Residency Match. This page does not reproduce those figures inline because they change each cycle; consult the current-year NRMP Results and Data publication directly and note its publication year when using any figure for planning.